fbpx

Take 5: NFL draft props to play Thursday

Field Level Media analyzed dozens of prop bets offered by numerous sportsbooks, searching for the best odds and most likely moneymakers.

We’ve ranked the top five in descending order below, starting off with a dark horse that could pay big, a parlay worthy of a party and finishing with as sure a thing as the 2019 NFL draft has to offer.

5. First wide receiver drafted – FanDuel.com

Marquise Brown
Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports

FanDuel has 15 different NFL draft prop bets currently listed, including old standbys — Who Will Be The First (or Second) Pick; First Player Drafted at several different positions.

As for the wide receiver most likely to be the first drafted, Mississippi’s D.K. Metcalf is listed as the favorite at -175, meaning that bettors would have to bet $175 to win $100.

Oklahoma’s Marquise Brown (+210) and Metcalf’s teammate at Ole Miss, A.J. Brown (+1000) are riskier but pay better. For those willing to roll the dice, consider Ohio State’s Parris Campbell, a 6-0, 205-pound Percy Harvin-like big-play specialist who at +5000 could make bettors rich even faster than the 4.31 second 40-yard dash he ran at the Combine. A measly $10 bet on Campbell – a late-rising prospect who was one of three receivers (along with Metcalf and Brown) listed in my latest mock draft – would net a $500 profit.

4. Kyler Murray Goes No. 1 – PointsBet.com

Many sportsbooks list Murray as the prohibitive favorite to be the top pick at -1000. A $1,000 bet would win $100. A thousand is the operative number for PointsBet.com, however, as the New Jersey-based online book is offering a +100 special to the first 1,000 bettors. As long as Cardinals general manager Steve Keim feels as strongly about Murray as his new head coach Kliff Kingsbury, this feels like easy money.

3. Number of Defensive Players Drafted in Round One – MyBookie.ag

Devin White
Stephen Lew-USA TODAY Sports

You have heard by now that this year’s draft is loaded with defense, particularly along the defensive line. Two-time NFL general manager Scot McCloughan characterized the 2019 crop as the best defensive line class he’d ever seen in 25-plus years in scouting.

I expect multiple off-ball linebackers (specifically Devin White and Devin Bush) and a handful of defensive backs to join the historic defensive line class in earning first-round selections. MyBookie.ag offers several intriguing wagers but its over-under breakdown of defensive (16.5) and offensive players (15.5) is especially tantalizing.

You’ll need to invest a little to win, but at -150, take the over on defensive players or Under on Offensive Players and laugh all the way to the bank. Just don’t think you can get away with parlaying the two – I already asked.

2. ACC+Big Ten Players Drafted in Round One with possible SEC parlay – WilliamHill.us

Nick Bosa
Brian Spurlock-USA TODAY Sports

If parlaying bets is your kind of party, check out the list of wagers available at WilliamHill.us, which offers online betting as well as walk-in sports books in Iowa, Nevada, New Jersey and West Virginia in the contiguous United States. First, for a reasonable gamble of -145, you can bet that at least 11.5 ACC and Big Ten players are selected in the first round.

That’s a steal.

I would be very surprised if these 12 players, in projected order, are not among the top 32 picks: Nick Bosa, Rashan Gary, Dwayne Haskins, Clelin Ferrell, T.J. Hockenson, Devin Bush, Brian Burns, Christian Wilkins, Dexter Lawrence, Daniel Jones, Garrett Bradbury and Noah Fant. And with a few other worthy candidates (Parris Campbell, Justin Layne, Chris Lindstrom, Amani Hooker, Juan Thornhill, etc.) having realistic shots at jumping into the mix, your risk is ready to become reward.

Parlay-seeking bettors might want to combine this bet with another on SEC prospects.

WilliamHill has the over-under on SEC players drafted in the first round at 12.5 with even odds on the over and -120 on the under. I see this as a riskier bet than the ACC and Big Ten combo but would take the over with 13 former SEC stars making my latest first-round mock (in projected order Quinnen Williams, Josh Allen, Devin White, Montez Sweat, Jawaan Taylor, Jonah Williams, Greedy Williams, D.K. Metcalf, Johnathan Abram, Deandre Baker, Jeffery Simmons, Josh Jacobs and Chauncey Gardner-Johnson) and several other worthy candidates capable of sneaking in, including A.J. Brown, Greg Little, Lonnie Johnson, Deebo Samuel and Elgton Jenkins.

1. Team (Denver Broncos) to Draft Player (Missouri QB Drew Lock) – DraftKings.com

A more accomplished NFL draft analyst than a sports betting guru, my comfort level is greater in projecting an individual player to a specific team (and not just the first or second overall pick).

I had a lot of success with it a year ago at the quarterback position, correctly forecasting all five first-round passers to their correct NFL teams. I love the fit with Lock in Denver and apparently so does DraftKings.com, listing the Broncos as the strong favorite to land the SEC’s all-time single-season touchdown leader with odds at +275 with the Redskins coming in second at +400.

–By Rob Rang (@RobRang), Field Level Media