Maybe you missed the window to take advantage of the teeter totter Bengals-Chiefs line this week or can’t get a firm grip on a favorite for the NFC Championship at Philadelphia between the Eagles and San Francisco 49ers.
Books are rolling out the red carpet with prop bet markets expanded to include peripheral stats and minutiae for both conference title games.
Here’s a look at 10 prop bets worth considering on Championship Sunday:
PROP PICKS 49ers QB Brocky Purdy Over 0.5 INTs (-140 at DraftKings): All three sportsbooks are offering the same prop, with the potential payout slightly better at DraftKings as of mid-day Saturday. Purdy hasn’t thrown a pick since Week 17 and has 59 pass attempts through his first two playoff games without committing a turnover. But the Eagles’ defense can bring pressure from any angle, with four players registering double-digit sacks. Purdy is still a rookie, and under pressure he has a tendency to spin out of the pocket and will force the occasional ball downfield – and Philly’s defense rarely lets opportunities slip away.
49ers RB Christian McCaffrey Anytime TD (-120 at BetMGM): This has been the most popular NFC prop at several sportsbooks. McCaffrey missed practice time with a calf injury this week but has vowed to play. When he plays, McCaffrey typically finds the end zone — including at least once in eight consecutive games entering Sunday.
49ers at Eagles Over 46.5 Total Points (-110 at BetRivers): It’s easy to lean Under given the strength of these two defenses. But that inclination hasn’t played out over the course of the season, with the sportsbook reporting these are two of only six teams to hit the Over in more than half of their games. Good defenses also create short fields, which create scoring opportunities. And both offenses have plenty of offensive firepower to take advantage.
Eagles WR A.J. Brown Over 68.5 Receiving Yards (-115 at BetMGM): The Giants didn’t do much right defensively last week other than hold Brown to 22 yards on a trio of catches. That has been the exception to the rule, with Brown topping 68.5 yards in the six games leading up to the Eagles’ playoff opener. He will draw a difficult matchup with Charvarius Ward likely tracking him most of the game, but Ward proved vulnerable to another big, physical wideout in Seattle’s D.K. Metcalf two weeks ago.
Eagles QB Jalen Hurts Anytime TD (+118 at BetRivers): This has been the second most popular NFC prop at the sportsbook, drawing 3.1 percent of the total tickets and the second most money. Hurts has six rushing touchdowns in his past five games, including one last weekend as the Eagles have increasingly relied on his legs with opponents also having to respect Philly’s ground game near the goal line.
Chiefs WR JuJu Smith-Schuster under 46.5 yards (-110, FanDuel): With only 11 targets in the past four games combined and two in the playoff win over the Jaguars last week (29 yards), Smith-Schuster might be due. But his breakout isn’t coming here. The Bengals clamped him the regular-season clash in December, when he caught three of four targets for 35 yards. Smith-Schuster has been limited to 38 yards or fewer seven times in the past nine games.
Bengals RB Joe Mixon over 58.5 rushing yards (-110, BetMGM): Only four NFL teams played more base nickel or dime defense than the Chiefs and defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo isn’t the type to change his stripes. He’s the type to rip with the front four and vary coverage. The Chiefs could apply more pressure if the Bengals, who didn’t have three starters on the offensive line at Buffalo last week, show leaks in protection. Methodical drives and a heavy reliance on plowing ahead with Mixon – 105 rushing yards last week — worked in beating the Bills, and Mixon had 88 rushing yards at Kansas City in the 2021 AFC Championship. Noteworthy: Mixon’s rushing total at FanDuel and DraftKings was set at 59.5.
Chiefs WR Marques Vadles-Scantling alt receiving yards, 40-plus (+210 at FanDuel): He’s not a game plan name for the Bengals. And no matter how much noise Eli Apple makes, he’s not a lockdown cornerback. The Bengals allowed MVS 71 receiving yards in Week 13 meeting with the Cincinnati and Patrick Mahomes is looking his way more often, including a TD connection last week.
Bengals LB Germaine Pratt over 6.5 tackles (-120 at BetMGM): This number includes solo plus assisted tackles. Pratt’s total was bet up to -140 at other books, and this one is a soft guarantee. Soft because he had only four total tackles when the teams met Dec. 4. He had eight or more tackles in nine games this season and a physically limited Mahomes brings the chances of short and quick throws, where Pratt could be in on double-digit stops.
Chiefs PK Harrison Butker over 7.5 points (+105 at Caesars Sportsbook): Bend, don’t break. That’s the charge for Cincinnati against the Chiefs, a winning approach that resulted in back-to-back 27-24 wins for the Bengals. Butker missed a field goal in the December meeting that would’ve forced overtime – and given him nine total points for the game. With safeties deep and boundaries available, the Chiefs won’t have as many explosive plays – or points – but count on Kansas City consistently moving the ball into FG range.
–Field Level Media
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