The first game of Conference Championship weekend in the NFL should be a display of offensive prowess when the Cincinnati Bengals visit the Kansas City Chiefs with the AFC title and a trip to Super Bowl LVI on the line.
What makes this an exciting game to bet on is the advantages each offense conceivably has. Neither defense is adept at slowing teams down and with two elite passing attacks, points and yards should be coming. With that established, this feels like a good game to add up a few options in an expected shootout. This parlay is being offered at +600 by DraftKings.
There’s a solid correlation for this SGP – if Burrow and Mahomes each pass the 275 passing yards threshold, they’ll likely have the help of their top receivers. With so many overs, we’re rooting for an over, so in this scenario we take a slightly lower alternate total of 49.5 points.
Let’s dig into each leg.
Burrow has gone over this total in three of his past four games, averaging 390.75 yards per game in that span.
Needless to say, that is far above this total. Burrow and these receivers torched Kansas City in Week 17, throwing for 446 yards and four touchdowns.
We watched Josh Allen carve up this defense last week, and with injuries in the Chiefs secondary, the recipe for a Bengals upset will come in the passing game.
This feels game-script proof. If Cincinnati wins, it’s likely due to Burrow moving the ball through the air. If the Bengals are trailing, they’ll be forced to throw even more.
This leg feels safe.
— Sunday, January 30th Cincinnati Bengals @ Kansas City Chiefs
Let’s stick with the Bengals as we make our way down this SGP. Chase had his best game of the season against the Chiefs a few weeks ago, going for a mammoth 266 receiving yards while breaking off multiple big plays.
Chase should again be able to utilize his big-play ability against a defense letting up the fourth-most 40-yard passes this season.
Chase has hit this total in four of his past five games.
Mixon has become very involved in the passing game lately with 5-plus targets in four consecutive games.
Mixon has 23 combined catches in his past four, averaging 47.5 receiving yards per game in that span.
The Chiefs allow the third-most receiving yards per game to running backs, so Mixon should have opportunities to continue his success in the passing game.
The Bengals’ secondary has struggled slowing down quarterbacks all season, allowing the seventh-most passing yards per game to QBs.
Mahomes should have no issues against this secondary, and has thrown for 404 and 378 yards in his past two games.
I see chunk plays all game for the Chiefs passing attack, which will help Mahomes hit this mark, along with our next leg.
Hill is Mahomes’ most explosive offense, evidenced by his 150 yards last weekend.
There’s something about studs in the playoffs that draws me in. The Bengals reasonably stifled Hill last time these teams met, but I don’t think they’ll be able to repeat that feat. Hill could realistically cross this threshold with just two catches. We shouldn’t need to rely on that though, with WR1 averaging 9.3 targets per game this season.
The Bengals’ defense has allowed the third-most 20-yard passes this season, so Hill is going to have chances to rack up yards in a hurry.
With advantages for both passing games, the over is a logical inclusion in a SGP here. Currently set at 54.5 points we get a slight discount here, but I would feel comfortable adding 54.5.
The last time these two teams met, the Bengals won 34-31. While I think the Chiefs advance to their third straight Super Bowl with a win, I foresee a similar scoring output.
That will do it for this +600 SGP. Touchdown scorers could be a fun addition to juice up the odds and potential payout, so if you agree with the logic here, feel free to add a few.
Enjoy the game! –Griffin Carroll (@griffybets), Field Level Media
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