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If you’re an avid RedZone watcher, you know how many touchdowns are scored every week.

When scanning the board for NFL player props, I find betting on touchdown scorers as some of the most satisfying picks. For one thing, you can win less than half of your bets and still see a profit.

For another, there’s something about correctly predicting who finds the end zone that feels different than betting a yardage prop.

At its core, touchdown scoring has an element of randomness, in the sense that once teams are near the goal line it takes just one designed play for a player no one is starting in fantasy to score.

Despite this, there is some strong data that supports betting a TD scorer.

The Approach

There are a few elements I focus on when building out individual touchdown scorer props.

• Offensive Red Zone TD Rate vs Defensive Red Zone TD Rate
• Red Zone Targets for Each Player
• Higher over/unders
• Advantage in one particular facet of the game, i.e. running game

Every week, I line up the offenses who score a touchdown on over 60 percent of their red zone trips against defenses that let opponents score at a 60 percent rate or higher.

The logic is simple. Should this offense reach the red zone, the trends suggest they have an above-average chance of scoring a touchdown.

Once those offenses are identified, I turn to red zone usage data. Sites such as FootballGuys.com easily organize recent usage rates, namely the amount of targets or carries a player gets in the red zone.

Players with established red zone roles in an advantageous spot feel like smart bets on an NFL Sunday.

The other two factors are more straightforward. If oddsmakers are projecting a high point total, such as Atlanta-Dallas this weekend at 54.5, that the sportsbooks way of telling you they expect more touchdowns to be scored.

Targeting these games can be beneficial since you should have more opportunities to correctly get your TD scorer selection right.

The cherry on top is finding disparities between units. This week’s example would be Tampa Bay’s elite passing attack against Washington’s porous secondary. Buccaneers pass-catchers are in an enviable spot and should be considered for scores.

Week 10: Five TD Scorer Picks

I have five players circled to score this weekend. In many cases, their teammates are worth your attention as well.

My primary focus is value and typically odds above +180, followed by volume in soft matchups.

Falcons WR Olamide Zaccheaus: +310

Let’s start with Zaccheaus, who scored twice last week. As noted above, this is the highest projected total of the weekend, suggesting plenty of scoring opportunities for both sides.

The Atlanta Falcons are scoring a touchdown on 63 percent of their red zone trips while Dallas is allowing offenses to score at a 68 percent rate.

Zaccheaus leads Atlanta’s wide receivers in red zone targets this season and is playing nearly 50 percent of the snaps. He should have opportunities against a Cowboys defense that has allowed 15 passing touchdowns this season.

— Sunday, November 14th Atlanta Falcons @ Dallas Cowboys

Buccaneers WR Tyler Johnson: +190

Antonio Brown is out and Chris Godwin will be a game-time decision, opening the door for continued work from Johnson.

Johnson has played over 60 percent of snaps in back-to-back weeks, seeing eight targets in that span.

Tom Brady leads the NFL in passing touchdowns (25) and gets a Washington defense allowing the second-most passing TDs this season (20).

This is terrific value for Johnson even if Godwin plays. Multiple passing touchdowns will be tossed in this one. If you’d like to play it safer, Mike Evans is at -110 odds and should see plenty of volume.

— Sunday, November 14th Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Washington Football Team

Chargers WR Keenan Allen: +115

OK, +115 might not quite be the odds you’d like in any anytime touchdown scorer bet. But sometimes you just need to roll with volume when it meets a value spot.

Allen is second among all Chargers in red zone opportunities with 14 and has played over 90 percent of snaps in four straight games.

The Vikings have given up the eighth-most touchdowns to wide receivers this season and allow offenses to score a touchdown on 68.2 percent of red zone trips. With an over/under at 53 points, there should be plenty of touchdowns to go around.

Steelers WR Diontae Johnson: +100

Chase Claypool is expected to miss this Sunday’s game against the Lions, opening up even more opportunity for Johnson, who is already seeing an elite level of targets.

On a per-game basis, only five receivers are seeing more targets per game than Johnson’s 9.9. He’s tied for the lead in red zone targets among all Pittsburgh pass-catchers, and we can’t overstate how vulnerable this Lions defense has been.

No team is allowing offenses to score a touchdown at a higher rate in the red zone than Detroit at 83.3 percent. Assuming Ben Roethlisberger can lead this offense down the field, Johnson is going to get his chances.

— Sunday, November 14th Detroit Lions @ Pittsburgh Steelers

Vikings RB Alexander Mattison: +450

Let’s end with a long shot.

The data strongly points the arrow towards top Vikings running back Dalvin Cook, but his odds are currently -140. If you like doing TD parlays, then by all means add Cook to your bet slip.

I like taking a shot at Mattison at these odds considering he saw two red zone carries last week and there hasn’t been a worse run defense in the NFL than the Chargers this season.

Los Angeles has allowed the fourth-most rushing TDs this season and the most yards per game by far. Mattison gets minimal work in this offense, but he does spell Cook during a stretch every week.

Mattison has at least one red zone look in every game but Week 1, a trend worth respecting.

— Sunday, November 14th Minnesota Vikings @ Los Angeles Chargers

–Follow Griffin Carroll (@griffybets) and check out his work at bettingwithdata.com.