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Feb 19, 2020 5:35 pm

Rory favorite, but money on DeChambeau in Mexico

Rory McIlroy has four consecutive top-five finishes to begin the season and is understandably the odds-on favorite entering this week’s WGC-Mexico Championship.

Dustin Johnson
Dustin Johnson. (Michael Madrid-USA TODAY Sports)

McIlroy was tied for the lead at the Genesis Invitational last Sunday before a triple-bogey thwarted his hopes at Riviera. However, the world’s top-ranked player finished second in Mexico City last year and is +500 at FanDuel and +600 at DraftKings this week.

McIlroy’s odds strengthened with several top players opting to skip this week’s event, including No. 2 Brooks Koepka and No. 9 Tiger Woods. No. 6 Patrick Cantlay is out indefinitely because of upcoming surgery to fix a deviated septum.

Defending champion Dustin Johnson is +800 at both books despite suffering his own late meltdown at Riviera. He is a two-time winner and has posted 11 consecutive rounds in the 60s at Club de Golf Chapultepec.

FedEx Cup leader Justin Thomas and Spain’s Jon Rahm are +1000 at both books, followed by Webb Simpson at +1600 coming off his victory at the Phoenix Open earlier this month. FanDuel is also offering Adam Scott, a winner in his past two starts who won in Mexico City four years ago, at +1600.

The odds between the books begin to fluctuate at that point. Of interest is Bryson DeChambeau, who is +2800 at DraftKings but responsible for a field-high 9 percent of the handle as of Wednesday.



That topped England’s Tommy Fleetwood, who was at +2200 with 8 percent of the handle, and 7 percent for Johnson. Some big bets had been placed on DeChambeau, who was responsible for only 5 percent of the total bets compared to a field-high 7 percent for Johnson and 6 percent for Fleetwood.

The 16th-ranked DeChambeau hasn’t won an event since the Dubai Desert Classic 13 months ago. However, he is coming off a T5 at Riviera and the bulked-up DeChambeau could be a sneaky bet at the Club de Golf Chapultepec, which has always favored longer hitters as it has a low elevation point of 7,603 feet above sea level.

Other players to note:

  • Justin Thomas
    Justin Thomas. (Brian Spurlock-USA TODAY Sports)

    Justin Thomas (+1000 at DraftKings) is coming off a missed cut at Riviera, but he has finished in the top-10 in each of his past three starts in the event — including posting two rounds of 62.

  • Xander Schauffele (+2000) has six top-20 finishes in 10 career WGC starts.
  • Mexico’s Abraham Ancer (+6000) enters the event ranked No. 29. He was No. 260 two years ago and No. 61 last year — quite the meteoric rise. He finished runner-up at The American Express last month before placing T6 at the Saudi International and T43 last week.

Both books are offering numerous prop bets.

FanDuel typically offers a winning prop bet with the favorites pulled out of the mix. This week, the book is removing McIlroy, Johnson, Rahm and Thomas and offering:

  • Adam Scott (+1100)
  • Webb Simpson (+1100)
  • Tommy Fleetwood (+1300)
  • Hideki Matsuyama (+1400)
  • Xander Schauffele (+1500)
  • Bryson DeChambeau (+1600)
  • Collin Morikawa (+2200)
  • Paul Casey (+2200)
  • Gary Woodland (+2600)
  • Louis Oosthuizen (+2600)
  • Marc Leishman (+2600)
  • Matt Kuchar (+2600)




Among DraftKing’s numerous props are odds on how the tournament will be decided.

  • By a Playoff: Yes (+400), No (-715)
  • By a 3-Man Playoff: Yes (+1200)
  • By a 4-Man Playoff: Yes (+6600)
  • Winner to Birdie the 72nd hole: Yes (+334), No (-500)
  • Winner to Par the 72nd hole: Yes (-250), No (+175)
  • Winner to Bogey the 72nd hole: Yes (+500), No (-1000)
  • Wire-to-wire winner? Yes (+1000)

–Derek Harper (@DerekAHarper), Field Level Media

 

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