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Dec 12, 2019 3:05 pm

Take 5: Can Bills, Allen handle bright lights vs. Steelers?

It’s been 12 years since the Buffalo Bills played on Sunday Night Football, and it’s been 20 since they won 10-plus games.

They’ll snap one drought just by showing up Sunday against the Pittsburgh Steelers, and they can snap the latter with a victory — but a win is no guarantee.

In a likely defensive battle, second-year quarterback Josh Allen will be squarely in the spotlight in his first prime-time start.

1. Can Allen handle the heat?

When we wrote about Allen entering Week 4, his ugly rookie season had carried straight into Year 2, with a series of bad decisions and open receivers left untargeted. He then completely imploded versus the Patriots, throwing three interceptions before leaving with a concussion.

Since then, Allen has made significant progress, primarily as a decision-maker. While he’s had some good fortune, his only interception in the last eight games came on a pure overthrow in nasty wind against the Broncos. Bills coaches have managed to mostly reign in Allen’s wild side, hardly an easy task.

Allen has also improved — albeit more slowly — with his vision and processing, and his accuracy has even come around at times, especially in the Thanksgiving Day win at Dallas.

However, most of that fell apart last week. The Ravens’ defense, while very good, was not as sharp in coverage as Allen’s numbers (17 of 39, 146 yards, one touchdown) would indicate. Facing heavy pressure (six sacks, 12 QB hits), Allen looked overwhelmed mentally at times and had too many receivers that he either failed to see or failed to hit with accuracy.

Pittsburgh’s defense is another tough test. Even without Stephon Tuitt, the Steelers can pressure with their front four of T.J. Watt, Bud Dupree, Cameron Heyward and Javon Hargrave. More importantly, each can win through blockers (not just around), which is critical to maintain rush lanes when coming after Allen.

On the back end, Minkah Fitzpatrick has given Pittsburgh new dimensions with his versatility, allowing coordinator Keith Butler to help against opponents’ top weapons in a variety of ways. At cornerback opposite Joe Haden, free agent signee Steven Nelson has had a quietly excellent season.

2. Tall task for Texans vs. Titans’ roaring offense

The Tennessee Titans’ offense has become a big-play machine under Ryan Tannehill. Per analytics guru Warren Sharp, the Titans have scored exactly one point per minute of possession with Tannehill, more than 30 percent better than second-ranked Baltimore (0.73) over that span.

The offense remains built around Derrick Henry, but Tannehill has been a terrific complement — he’s attempted only 86 passes over the last four weeks. Of that total, he has nine touchdowns for a staggering 10.4 percent TD rate. Tannehill has been extremely decisive and accurate, especially on coordinator Arthur Smith’s run-pass options and play-action concepts.

The Houston Texans have the physicality to challenge the Titans’ run game. D.J. Reader is an underappreciated interior disruptor, and linebackers Benardrick McKinney and Zach Cunningham fly downhill with bad intentions. Even so, the unit’s discipline comes and goes, and it takes only one mistake to get bitten against Henry.

The bigger concern is pass defense. Bradley Roby is the best pure cover cornerback, but he shows lapses in concentration and inconsistency playing the ball in the air. Gareon Conley and Vernon Hargreaves have been up-and-down, Johnathan Joseph is (finally) showing his age and rookie Lonnie Johnson is far too grabby.

The Texans also play too loose at times, an issue that peaked last week with a slew of blown assignments vs. Denver. Much like the Broncos, the Titans’ passing game employs a litany of play-action designs out of run-heavy formations. The Texans and coordinator Romeo Crennel need to clean things up fast.

The root issue, though, is not getting fixed soon. Houston’s pass rush evaporated with J.J. Watt’s torn pec, as Whitney Mercilus has gone silent while facing extra attention. Fill-in Brandon Scarlett is mostly an effort guy, and Jacob Martin — the twitchiest rusher on the roster — plays sparingly because he can’t survive against the run.

The Texans’ best way to pressure is through scheme, but that’s hard to do on early downs against run-heavy looks, which is exactly what they’ll see from Tennessee on Sunday. Houston’s best chance on defense is to get an early lead and flip game script in its favor.

3. Bears’ D could look like its old self

Akiem Hicks’ injury might be the most underrated of this NFL season.

The Chicago Bears’ defense simply isn’t the same without him. The run defense slipped the moment Hicks was hurt in London against the Raiders, and Khalil Mack has been much quieter without the threat of Hicks on the same side of the formation.

But Hicks looks set to return this week, an unwelcome sight for a Green Bay Packers offense that managed just 10 points at Chicago in Week 1.

The Packers averaged 2.1 yards per carry vs. Hicks & Co., and with the middle clogged, Aaron Rodgers resorted to the pass option on several RPOs that failed. Many were ill-advised decisions, and on some, he flat-out missed the throw. Those kinds of issues can short-circuit an offense and frustrate a playcaller.

Hicks hounded Rodgers as a rusher too, getting home for a sack and an additional hit while aiding teammates on several occasions. The Rodgers pendulum — between playing on-schedule or holding the ball while trying to ad-lib — has swung too far toward the latter of late. If Hicks is fully healthy, that can’t continue Sunday.

4. Will Wade change up vs. Cowboys?

In January’s divisional playoff win over the Dallas Cowboys, Los Angeles Rams D-coordinator Wade Phillips geared his plan toward shutting down Ezekiel Elliott.

On early downs, Phillips played base 3-4 vs. the Cowboys’ three-WR sets, often leaving a safety or a linebacker on a wideout. Amari Cooper beat the look for a 29-yard touchdown, but Dallas didn’t punish L.A. enough otherwise.

Does that plan still make sense? The Rams’ run defense has improved, and the Cowboys have become rather pass-heavy under Kellen Moore, rarely using the run game as a foundational approach.

Perhaps a happy medium would make sense. Phillips has used a 3-3-5 nickel package — really a 5-1, with outside linebackers Clay Matthews and Dante Fowler playing on the edges — more this year, trusting the rangy Cory Littleton as the lone off-ball linebacker.

That package would provide enough beef up front while still having three cornerbacks who match well stylistically to the Cowboys’ receivers: Jalen Ramsey on Amari Cooper, Troy Hill on Michael Gallup and Nickell Robey-Coleman on Randall Cobb.

5. Can the 49ers survive the injury onslaught?

The San Francisco 49ers’ run to 11-2 is even more impressive considering the injuries they’ve faced.

Both starting offensive tackles, tight ends George Kittle and fullback Kyle Juszczyk have missed significant time, and several wideouts and running backs have been banged up. Center Weston Richburg — a critical piece on Kyle Shanahan’s run schemes — and tight end Garrett Celek are now done for the season.

On defense, linebacker Kwon Alexander was lost on Halloween, and the 49ers’ tackling has been spotty of late. Now defensive end Dee Ford, nose tackle D.J. Jones and cornerback Richard Sherman could miss the rest of the regular season, and possibly more.

Those injuries probably aren’t critical Sunday against the Atlanta Falcons — although Grady Jarrett could wreak havoc inside with Richburg out — but they’ll matter at some point. Do the Niners have enough to overcome them?

–David DeChant (@DavidDeChant), Field Level Media



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