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Rafael Nadal may be the sentimental favorite to win the Australian Open, but oddsmakers strongly favor Daniil Medvedev to claim his second grand slam title this weekend.

Both survived grueling five-set matches to reach the semifinals. The sixth-seeded Nadal will play No. 7 Matteo Berrettini on Thursday while Medvedev will square off against fourth-seeded Stefanos Tsitsipas.



Nadal began the tournament at +500 at BetMGM to win a record 21st Grand Slam title and break out of his current tie with Novak Djokovic and Roger Federer. He is now +240 and being backed by 27.2 percent of the bets and 18.9 percent of the money at the sportsbook.

Medvedev claimed his first major title while denying Djokovic a 21st along with the calendar Grand Slam at last year’s U.S. Open.

Medvedev, who lost in straight sets to Djokovic in last year’s final in Melbourne and need to survive a match point on Wednesday, is the heavy favorite at -110 at BetMGM after opening at +160. He has been backed by fewer total bets than Nadal with 23.2, but Medvedev has drawn 45.1 percent of the total money wagered on the men’s champion.

First Time Champion?

The other two are vying to win their first career Grand Slam titles.

Tsitsipas blew past No. 11 seed Jannik Sinner in under two hours in his quarterfinal. After opening the tournament at +1400, his odds have shortened to +450 as the Greek star has been backed by 11.3 percent of the bets and 7.0 percent of the money.

Berrettini fended off a comeback attempt from 17th-seeded Gael Monfils of France to win in five sets and reach his third semifinal in the past four Grand Slam events.



He is still seeking his first major title and owns the longest odds among the semifinalists at +600 while being backed by 5.9 percent of the bets and just 3.2 percent of the money wagered on the men’s champion.

Berrettini is the first Italian to advance to the Australian Open semifinals.

–Field Level Media (@FieldLevelMedia)