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Oct 4, 2024 12:25 pm

UFC 307: Preview, Props, Odds & Trends

Alex Pereira

Alex Pereira makes the third title defense of his light heavyweight title he opposes Khalil Rountree Jr. in the main event of UFC 307 that begins at 10 p.m. ET on Saturday in Salt Lake City.

Pereira (11-2 MMA), a 37-year-old Brazilian, is fresh off back-to-back knockout victories against ex-UFC light heavyweight champions Jamahal Hill at UFC 300 in April and Jiri Prochazka at UFC 303 in June.

Rountree (14-5 MMA), a 34-year-old Los Angeles native, is rated No. 8 in the light heavyweight division, having won five straight fights. In his latest outing, he finished Anthony Smith by third-round TKO in December, earning the title shot.

Pereira said Thursday at the pre-fight press conference that he greatly respects Rountree Jr. for accepting the fight and his willingness and belief as one of the division’s best fighters.

“Khalil’s up there,” Pereira said via translation. “You can’t deny that anymore. For all the work he’s put in, he is a great striker in this organization. He got the shot, and I am grateful (to fight him).”

LOPSIDED ACTION
Pereira is one of nine UFC fighters to capture championships in multiple weight classes. He won the UFC middleweight title at UFC 281 in November 2022 with a stunning TKO of long-time rival Israel Adesanya. Pereira’s reign was short-lived, however, as he lost the belt to Adesanya in an immediate rematch at UFC 287 in April 2023.

Pereira is a -470 favorite at DraftKings, where he has been the most heavily-bet fighter on the card, and a -520 favorite at FanDuel, with Rountree a heavy underdog at +360 and +350, respectively. Pereira winning by submission (+1600) has been thee most popular winning method at DraftKings, where Rountree winning by knockout, technical knockout or disqualification is next at +500.

BetMGM has also seen one-sided support for Pereira, who has drawn 79 percent of the bets and 66 percent of the money at -500.

THEY SAID IT
Rountree said he is remaining loose and relaxed ahead of the biggest fight of his career. He said he wants this fight remembered as a vehicle for those who can achieve anything.

“Ask yourself this question, right?” Rountree said. “Everybody in the crowd asks yourself this question, ‘What do you want in life? Like, what do you actually want? Not material. When it comes down to a feeling, a vision that you see for yourself. What do you want? And what’s stopping you? That’s what I’m asking myself right now, and that’s what I’ve asked myself all the way up until this point. What’s stopping me from getting what I want?

“For me, the answer has been myself. I think that it’s the same for a lot of people. A lot of times, it’s ourselves in front of us that’s stopping us. So, for me, it’s like, I’ve overcome that (feeling) so many times. And I’m at this point right now. The challenge is not done.”

TITLE BOUT IN CO-MAIN EVENT
The co-main event is a title bought featuring the UFC women’s bantamweight champion Raquel Pennington (16-8 MMA) and former champion Julianna Pena (11-5 MMA). Both women are mainstays of the division and were ex-roommates on The Ultimate Fighter 18, but they have never had the opportunity to compete.

Pena went on to win the season and four out of her first six UFC outings before earning a title shot against then-champion Amanda Nunes. Pena upset Nunes to win the belt in a one-sided affair at UFC 269 in December 2021, securing a second-round rear-naked-choke.

Similarly to the Adesanya-Pereira rivalry, Pena’s championship run lasted less than a year. At UFC 277 in July 2022, Nunes swept the scorecards to win back the belt. She defended it again the following summer against Irene Aldana at UFC 289 before retiring after the victory.

Pennington wound up claiming the vacant title by winning a sixth straight bout, defeating Mayra Bueno Silva by decision at UFC 297 in January.

Pennington opened as the -185 favorite at BetMGM, with those odds shifting to -150 despite drawing 62 percent of the total bets and 53 percent of the money to beat Pena (+125).

OTHER MAIN CARD FIGHTS
ROMAN DOLIDZE VS. KEVIN HOLLAND
The middleweights open the main card. Dolidze will step into the Octagon for the third time this year, having rebounded from a February loss to Nassourdine Imavov by notching a short-notice unanimous decision victory over Anthony Smith at UFC 303.

Dolidze, who has split his UFC time between the middleweight and light heavyweight divisions, can move up the middleweight ranks with a win over Holland, who snapped a two-fight losing streak with a first-round submission win over Michal Oleksiejczuk in his most recent fight. However, he has won just one of his past four middleweight fights.

Holland opened at -165 at BetMGM, but those odds have shifted to -145 with the public backing him with 61 percent of the money. But the total bets have been almost split, with Dolidze holding a slight edge with 53 percent.

JOSE ALDO VS. MARIO BAUTISTA
This bantamweight fight pits the Brazilian Aldo against Bautista, a rising name who faces his stiffest test to date. Aldo came out of a brief retirement to score a decision win over Jonathan Martinez in Rio de Janeiro in May. Bautista, meanwhile, is riding a six-fight win streak. The MMA Lab product most recent earned a unanimous decision win over Ricky Simon.

The public has been split, with Bautista backed by 56 percent of the money as the -140 favorite, while Aldo has been supported by a whopping 79 percent of the bets — driving his odds down from +130 to +115 by Friday.

KETLEN VIEIRA VS. KAYLA HARRISON
This women’s bantamweight fight features the 135-pound mainstay Vieira against the newcomer Harrison, who dominated former champion Holly Holm in her UFC debut in April. Vieira, who also has a win over Holm on her resume, lost a split decision against Pennington before beating Pannie Kianzad.

It’s a massive fight for both women, with the winner in excellent position to face the winner of Pennington-Pena in the co-main event. Harrison is the biggest favorite on the main card at -1100. That has led to lopsided action for Vieira, who has drawn 83 percent of the total bets and 80 percent of the money as the +700 underdog.

–Field Level Media

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