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When the checkered flag flies at the Charlotte Roval on Sunday, it will mark the end of four drivers’ NASCAR Cup Series championship hopes.

The Roval is seen as a wild-card race, and while anything can happen, the cream will most likely rise to the top. Here are our predictions for the four drivers who will be eliminated in the Round of 12.

Austin Cindric
Cindric will always be in the conversation for a top-10 finish when the circuit visits a road course, but he needs much more than a top-10 on Sunday. Cindric sits 29 points below the top-eight cut line and needs to score the third victory of his Cup Series career in order to advance. Cindric has finishes of 21st and 25th in his two starts at the Roval, and it’s likely his 2024 playoff run will end in the same way his 2022 run did.

Chase Briscoe
Like Cindric, Briscoe (-32) needs a perfectly timed victory to advance to the Round of 8 for the second time in three seasons. And, similarly to Cindric, his prior finishes at the Roval don’t exactly inspire confidence that he can deliver. He was able to advance to the Round of 8 in 2022 with a ninth-place run, but finishes of 22nd in 2021 and 28th in 2023 make it unlikely that his Cinderella postseason run will continue. You can’t count him out — as he proved at Darlington — but it’d be shocking to see the No. 14 pull into victory lane.

Daniel Suarez
Unlike Cindric and Briscoe, Suarez (-20) isn’t quite in a must-win situation, and he’s had a couple of solid runs at the Roval. A 13th-place finish in 2021 was followed by Suarez collecting stage points in both 2022 and 2023. He didn’t get the chance to finish out those races, but he’s shown the ability to consistently run up front. However, a 20-point deficit — especially to road-course ace Chase Elliott — doesn’t bode well for Suarez, whose playoff run will once again end in the Round of 12.

Tyler Reddick
This may seem laughable given Reddick’s 14-point cushion over ninth-place Joey Logano and his reputation as a top road-course racer, but the No. 45 team has been in a horrendous slump since the playoff opener at Atlanta. Over the last four races, Reddick has led 12 laps, hasn’t scored more than 24 points and hasn’t finished better than 20th. Those aren’t numbers that qualify a driver for the Round of 8, much less a championship. Reddick will have to dig deep to advance — which he’s certainly capable of — but the momentum just isn’t on his side. Reddick has had an impressive 2024 season, but he just hasn’t been able to put together a postseason run.

–Samuel Stubbs, Field Level Media