UConn’s dramatic last-second upset of Duke on Sunday played right into the hands of Arizona and Michigan, at least in the eyes of oddsmakers.
The two remaining No. 1 seeds will do battle in Saturday night’s second Final Four matchup in Indianapolis, and the winner is expected to be heavily favored to win the national title.
Michigan opened as a 1.5-point favorite to beat Arizona at BetMGM. The Wolverines have blitzed through their first four opponents, winning by an average of 22.5 points en route to the Final Four. Their closest game was a 13-point win over Alabama in the Sweet 16 before a 33-point dismantling of No. 6 seed Tennessee on Sunday.
The Wildcats were tested a bit in the Elite 8 before handling Purdue, and have won their first four games by an average of 20.5 points.
Ironically, while the Wildcats are underdogs on Saturday night they are the favorites to win the national title.
By the time Arizona and Michigan take the court at Lucas Oil Stadium, the first half of the title game will have been decided.
Braylon Mullins’ 35-foot heave just before the buzzer on Sunday put the Huskies in a Final Four showdown against Illinois. The Huskies are in their third Final Four in the past four years, but the Fighting Illini were installed as 1.5-point favorites.
The third-seeded Illini have enjoyed a convincing run to Indianapolis, with their closest victory a comfortable 10-point win over Houston in the Sweet 16. No. 9 seed Iowa kept their Elite 8 matchup interesting until Illinois pulled away for a 12-point victory on Saturday.
UConn has had the most dramatic run to the Final Four, and that was even before Mullins’ heroics on Sunday. The Huskies had to survive a four-point win over No. 3 seed Michigan State in the East Region to set the stage for the matchup against Duke, which the Blue Devils led by 19 points during the first half.
The Huskies will enter Saturday as the higher seed, but they opened as underdogs against the Illini and with the longest title odds among the remaining four teams. Illinois has the shortest odds to reach the title game at -135, followed by Michigan (-120), UConn (-110) and Arizona (-105).
But it’s also clear that oddsmakers believe the winner of the clash of No. 1 seeds will enter the title game as significant favorites to cut down the nets in Indianapolis.
“The second weekend of the tournament was favorable for the sportsbook with many underdogs covering or winning outright,” BetMGM senior trader Michael Ranftle said. “Illinois upsetting Houston on Thursday was the best outcome for the book. On the futures market, the sportsbook is in good shape with UConn the only remaining liability.”
NATIONAL TITLE ODDS*
- Arizona Wildcats (+165)
- Michigan Wolverines (+180)
- Illinois Fighting Illini (+475)
- UConn Huskies (+550)
Still on repeat 🔁
Can't believe this shot.
Chills.#MarchMadness https://t.co/Gi4hwpbRT2 pic.twitter.com/hR48GpbeQi
— NCAA March Madness (@MarchMadnessMBB) March 30, 2026
–Field Level Media
