Many in the boxing world are concerned for Jake Paul’s health going into Friday night’s fight against former heavyweight champion Anthony Joshua, but the betting public is heavily backing the former YouTube star pulling off an historic upset at the Kaseya Center in Miami.
Joshua is a massive -1200 favorite at DraftKings, where Paul has been backed by 86% of the money as the +700 underdog.
The most popular outcome has Paul winning by decision or technical decision, which has been backed by 30% of the Method of Victory prop money. Paul winning by knockout, technical knockout or disqualification led the way with 25% of the total prop bets while also attracting 23% of the money.
The fight odds were closer at BetMGM on Friday morning, with Paul drawing 83% of the money at +550 to beat Joshua at -1000. Despite the heavy action backing Paul, he had shifted to a +650 underdog by the afternoon while Joshua’s odds shortened further to -1400.
Paul winning by KO/TKO or DQ at +1200 was also the most-bet outcome prop at BetMGM, followed by Joshua winning on points or technical decision at +1200.
Joshua (28-4, 25 KOs) is eight years older than the 28-year-old Paul (12-1, 7 KOs), but owns a 27-pound weight advantage along with being a former heavyweight champion. The fight will be streamed by Netflix and has drawn significant criticism for the size and experience gap between the two.
Joshua will be fighting for the first time since September 2024, but has won three of his past four bouts. He also raised eyebrows with his comment this week that he could “kill” Paul.
“I’m a very respectful guy, brought up by a good family, but if I can kill you, I will kill you. That’s just how I am,” he said.
Paul was initially slated to fight Maryland’s Gervonta Davis (30-0-1, 28 KOs) on Nov. 14, but Joshua accepted Friday night’s fight after Davis withdrew.
“With this one (fight), in terms of putting boxing on my back, it just seems like I’m being called to save the pugilists, the purest of boxing,” Joshua told reporters. “And so, people don’t like the fact that I’m fighting Jake. Whether that concerns me or not is another question, but if we look at the people that don’t want me to be here (fighting), they want me to put an end to Jake Paul’s show, I understand, and that’s why I have to carry boxing in my back with this fight.”
Paul disagreed, despite having mutual respect for the once-prominent champion.
“I think no one’s done more for the sport of boxing in the past decade than myself,” Paul said. “So I think if people really cared about boxing, they’d want me to win. But I see the angle where they’re coming from is. He’s the true, traditional boxer who has been doing it his whole life, etc. But I think I’m more important for the sport of boxing.”
The event will begin about 4:45 p.m. ET, followed by the Netflix portion at 8 p.m., with Paul vs. Joshua tentatively is scheduled to begin just after 10:30 p.m.
–Field Level Media
