2023 GEICO 500: Preview, Trends, Best Bets

4/21/2023 6:20:13 PM EST

There are few places on the NASCAR Cup Series schedule that raise the pulse of both driver and fan like the Talladega Superspeedway.

There are 11 former winners in the field for Sunday's GEICO 500, from six-time Talladega winner Brad Keselowski -- whose win tally is second only to the late 10-time Talladega master Dale Earnhardt -- to Ross Chastain, who earned his first Talladega win in this race last year, leading only the final lap.

Denny Hamlin, Chase Elliott and Ryan Blaney each have a pair of Talladega trophies; Elliott won his second in the Fall race last year. Blaney, who is hoping to snap a 55-race winless streak, is the only active driver to win back-to-back races (2019-20).

Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (2017) and Bubba Wallace (2021) earned their first NASCAR Cup Series victories at Talladega.

Martin Truex Jr. won a record three straight NASCAR Xfinity Series races at Talladega (2004-06) but hasn't won a NASCAR Cup Series race on the 2.66-mile high banks in 36 starts.

For all the statistical analysis, there's still no odds-on way to predict who will ultimately edge ahead for the checkered flag Sunday. And that's why fans love Talladega so much.

"Still trying to figure out how to get that first win at Talladega," said Truex, who is coming off his best finish of the season -- third at Martinsville last week -- and is ranked fifth in the championship.

"We've been close there before and ran really strong there last year with our Bass Pro Shops Camry, so just looking to build on that and focus on what it's going to take to try and get our first win there."

With Kyle Larson earning the victory at Martinsville, he joins Hendrick Motorsports teammate William Byron as the only two multi-race winners this season.

There have been seven different winners through the season's opening nine races with Truex's Joe Gibbs Racing teammate Christopher Bell holding the championship lead by five-points over Chastain, 15 points over Kevin Harvick, 17 more than Larson and 36 more than Truex.

Among that top five, the defending Talladega winner Chastain, Harvick, the 2010 Talladega winner and Truex are still looking for that first victory in 2023.

"It's one of those places where you want to race up front and race hard all day because you have to try to win stages," said Harvick, who is making his 800th career NASCAR Cup Series start at Talladega.

"I believe you have better odds at the front of the pack when it comes to staying out of a wreck, if you can keep that track position all day. You're going to race in a pack -- three-wide at times -- and you're going to get pushed and have to push at times. You just never know what's going to happen because Talladega is its own animal."

Hamlin, a three-time Daytona 500 winner with two Talladega wins (2014 and 2020), is also another frontrunner with high expectations this weekend. He leads all active drivers with 20 top-five finishes at Talladega and hopes to answer his first top five of the season -- last week at Martinsville -- with his first victory of the year.

GEICO 500
Location: Talladega (Ala.) Motorspeedway
Time: 3 p.m. ET
Length: 188 laps on 2.66-mile track
Defending Champion: Ross Chastain
How to Follow: FOX, MRN and SiriusXM NASCAR Radio

BEST BETS SIX-PACK
Joey Logano (+1000 at BetMGM)
Logano, who finished second at Daytona in February, is third at the sportsbook with 5.9 percent of the total bets backing him to win. He has three Talladega victories on his resume along with seven other top-10 finishes at the track.

Ryan Blaney (+1200)
Blaney followed up his win in the 2019 fall race with another win at Talledega the next spring. He is the second biggest liability at BetMGM this week as Blaney has been supported by 7.9 and 10.9 percent of the action, respectively. However, Blaney's current 55-race winless streak is the second longest of his career.

Chase Elliott (+1400)
Elliott -- the 2019 and 2022 Talladega winner -- will be competing in only his second race after breaking his left leg in a snowboarding accident in early March. He came out of the gate strong in his return to competition last week -- finishing 10th at Martinsville. He has the two wins, five top-five and seven top-10 finishes in 14 Talladega races, and is BetMGM's biggest liability this week with 7.7 percent of the bets and 14.6 percent of the money backing him.

Brad Keselowski (+1400)
His six career victories at Talladega are the second most all-time behind Earnhardt's 10, the most recent coming in this race two years ago. He finished second in the YallaWood 500 at Talladega that fall.

Christopher Bell (+1800)
The series points leader is still seeking his first Talladega victory. He won the pole position for both Talladega races last year, but his only top-10 in six starts was in the 2021 playoff race -- a fifth-place finish. His career best showing at the track is runner-up in the 2017 Craftsman Truck Series race.

Kyle Larson (+1800)
Larson is coming off a win at Martinsville -- can he go back-to-back at NASCAR's biggest non-road course track after finding Victory Lane at one of its smallest?

--Field Level Media (Information from the NASCAR Wire Service contributed to this story)

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