Lamar Jackson new MVP favorite as Brock Purdy plummets

12/26/2023 1:27:15 PM EST

The NFL's Most Valuable Player race took the primetime stage on Christmas night, and Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson put together a performance that vaulted the 2019 award winner into the driver's seat.

Jackson passed for 252 yards with a pair of touchdowns and also led the Ravens with 45 rushing yards in leading Baltimore to a 33-19 victory at San Francisco. Meanwhile, previous MVP favorite Brock Purdy suffered the worst outing of his young career, throwing four interceptions.

When the dust settled, Jackson moved to the odds-on MVP favorite at most sportsbooks. That includes being the -160 favorite at BetMGM and DraftKings. Meanwhile, Purdy dropped to fourth at +1200 at both books, and may have seen an end to his MVP aspirations for this season.

Purdy had stumped for teammate Christian McCaffrey for MVP honors last week, and the running back is now Jackson's closest pursuer after rushing for 103 yards and adding another 28 as a receiver, accounting for 131 total yards.

McCaffrey vaulted from +1600 at BetMGM last week to +400 on Tuesday, while seeing his odds shorten from +1000 to +400 at DraftKings. Also moving ahead of Purdy was Miami quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, who is now being offered at +900 and +1000, respectively.

McCaffrey is seeking to become the first non-quarterback to win the award since running back Adrian Peterson accomplished the feat with the Minnesota Vikings in 2012.

If he does, it would be a painful result for sportsbooks. McCaffrey is the biggest MVP liability at BetMGM, where he has been backed by 8.3 percent of all money wagered since opening as a +10000 longshot.

McCaffrey has two more games to add to his 1,932 total yards and 21 touchdowns, with the 49ers closing the regular season at Washington and then at home against the Los Angeles Rams. Meanwhile, Jackson will go toe-to-toe in another high profile battle against Tagovailoa at home on Sunday before facing bitter rival Pittsburgh in Week 18.

Jackson has thrown for only 19 touchdowns through 15 games. The fewest ever for an MVP-winning quarterback was 24 by Tennessee's Steve McNair, according to ESPN Stats & Information research.

However, Jackson has also rushed for 786 yards and five touchdowns. And his all-around importance to the Ravens' offense was in full display as he continued to confound San Francisco's stout defense on Monday night.

"I thought Lamar had an MVP performance," Ravens coach John Harbaugh said. "It takes a team to create a performance like that, but it takes a player to play at that level -- to play at an MVP level -- it takes a player to play that way. And Lamar was all over the field doing everything."

Jackson's touchdown total would be a bigger hindrance in most years, but this season has seen numerous players elevate to favorite status only to fall back.

Reigning MVP Patrick Mahomes opened the season as the favorite to repeat, but he has plummeted to +5000 at BetMGM and +3500 at DraftKings. He was passed early in the season by Philadelphia's Jalen Hurts, but then the Eagles went on a three-game losing skid and he currently sits at +3000 and +2500, respectively.

As painful as a McCaffrey MVP win would be for books, Hurts' fall from the top perch helps ease the potential pain. He still leads all players with 10.6 percent of the total MVP bets at BetMGM. However, Jackson leads by a wide margin with 18.3 percent of the total money wagered since opening at +1600.

Jackson already has one MVP award on his resume, and distinctly remembers that was followed by a quick exit in the postseason.

"We know it was in 2019 when we were playing against (teams) like this (and) winning regular season games (and) when the time came, we didn't finish the season," Jackson said after Monday night's game. "We're just going to keep taking it a day at a time, a practice at a time and a game at a time. That's all I'm focused on right now."

--Field Level Media

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