One of four women can leave New York on Sept. 12 as the world’s top-ranked tennis player.
Two Americans — Coco Gauff and Jessica Pegula — would have to raise the 2026 U.S. Open trophy in Arthur Ashe Stadium in order to stake their first-ever claim on that global honor.
Top-seeded and two-time defending champion Aryna Sabalenka is very vulnerable, having to defend the 2,000 points she earned by winning the 2025 crown in Flushing Meadows. The Belarusian, who has held the top spot since October 2024 (97 weeks), has to win or hope that Gauff, Pegula or Elena Rybakina — her most likely successor — do not.
Rybakina may have the easiest path to dethrone Sabalenka. She is only 434 ranking points behind and could take the top spot without striking a ball, as long as the aforementioned three players do not win. If Rybakina wins or even reaches the semifinals, she would ascend to the top of the rankings for the first time.
The complicating factor is that the second-seeded Rybakina, who competes under the Kazakhstan flag, suffered a left ankle injury during her Cincinnati Open quarterfinal match against Poland’s Iga Swiatek.
Rybakina, the 2026 Australian Open champion, immediately bowed out of the match and did not practice for eight days until taking the practice courts on the U.S Open grounds on Friday.
“Seems OK, so hopefully it’s going to be good for my first match,” Rybakina told The Mirror on Tuesday of her ankle. “In total I had like 10 days, and I still have a couple more to prepare.”
Swiatek, the 2022 U.S. Open champion, 2026 French Open champion Mirra Andreeva of Russia and Japan’s Naomi Osaka, who earned titles in New York in 2018 and 2020, are also prime contenders for the title.
Swiatek, seeded No. 8, won her first tournament of the year in Toronto, while No. 13 Osaka is playing her best tennis since returning to the tour in January 2024.
And the Philippines will not let anyone forget about their phenom, Alexandra Eala, who has vaulted up to a No. 17 seed after a summer where she knocked off Pegula to win in Washington, D.C., and also produced victories over Rybakina (Berlin) and Swiatek (Wimbledon).
On paper, Gauff has a brutal draw, having to potentially face Eala in a third-round match and then perhaps fifth-seeded Andreeva or 10th-seeded Amanda Anisimova in the quarterfinals. Rybakina, Swiatek, Osaka and No. 12 Swiss standout Belinda Bencic all reside in the other quarter of the bottom half.
Gauff is in a much different place than she was at last year’s Open when she stunned everyone by changing coaches just before the 2025 event, bringing in Gavin MacMillan to fix her wayward serve. The immediate results were predictable with such short notice: the serve was inconsistent, even bringing the then-21-year-old to tears in a second-round match against Croatian Donna Vekic.
Osaka ousted Gauff in the fourth round, but Gauff admits now the short-term pain is leading to a long-term gain. Most of her service metrics are up from a year ago, especially first-serve percentage (up 1.6%) and double faults (down 2.1%).
“The U.S. Open can be the one that you feel the most pressure at, just being an American wanting to succeed and do well,” said Gauff at Friday’s Media Day. “In the grand scheme, it’s not really that many opportunities you get to play here so I just try to enjoy each and every single time that I’m out here.”
In the upper half, Sabalenka might have to deal with a pair of Wimbledon champions and Czech Republic natives in her quarter, as No. 27 seed and 2024 titlist Barbora Krejcikova is a potential third-round opponent and reigning Wimbledon champion sixth-seeded Linda Noskova could be a quarterfinal foe.
Pegula might face seventh-seeded and newly crowned U.S. Open mixed doubles champion Karolina Muchova from the Czech Republic or possibly No. 9 resurgent Elina Svitolina of Ukraine in the quarters.
The Buffalo, N.Y., native talked about the depth of the tour compared to the men’s game and the tight points race in 2026 in positive terms.
“You can just see how the depth is pretty crazy,” said Pegula. “I think it seems to me like maybe, (the WTA is) more open in a way just because … there’s more chances to win.”
–Field Level Media
