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Denny Hamlin faces the equivalent of a last-chance qualifier in the Bass Pro Shops Night Race on Saturday at Bristol Motor Speedway.

The first round of the NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs certainly hasn’t gone according to plan for the driver of the No. 11 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota. A conservative strategy and a late wreck led to a 24th-place finish in the Round of 16 opener at Atlanta Motor Speedway.

Hamiln is six points below the current cut line for the Round of 12, but the 43-year-old can point to his record at Bristol with confidence. He’s the defending winner of the Night Race, and he added a fourth career victory at Thunder Valley in March.

“I feel like we can go to Bristol and win,” Hamlin said. “We can control our own destiny there. If we can run in the top two or three all day and score stage points and be there at the end like we are capable of doing, then I feel good about it.”

Hamlin insists he’s not in a must-win situation, but there are few convenient targets available in his quest to advance on points.

To catch Hendrick Motorsports teammates Kyle Larson and William Byron — ninth and 10th, respectively, in the standings — Hamlin would have to overcome respective deficits of 26 and 25 points.

Clearly, the best-case scenario for Hamlin is a victory and automatic advancement to the Round of 12.

Veterans Brad Keselowski and Martin Truex Jr. face even more daunting challenges.

Entering the elimination race Saturday, Keselowski is 12 points below the current cutoff, Truex 14.

Keselowski is a three-time Bristol winner, while Truex has never won a Cup race on the high-banked concrete track.

It might be a good omen that Truex’s No. 19 Toyota is carrying the livery of the race’s entitlement sponsor. It’s a better predictor that the Cup Series drivers will be racing on the same rubber that made the spring race a tire-management challenge.

“I’m certainly looking forward to it more than in past years,” said Truex, who has scored just three top fives in 34 Bristol starts. “Bristol has been in the past, just hammer it as hard as you can all day. Track position was huge.

“Tires didn’t really wear out and it was all about pit stops, restarts and track position. Now, in the spring, it was like old-school racing. I enjoyed that more and had better success at it than I did in previous years at Bristol, so I’m excited for that.”

Through two playoff races, Joey Logano is the only driver who has clinched a spot in the Round of 12, thanks to his victory in the Atlanta opener. Points leader Christopher Bell (+46), Austin Cindric (+43) and Alex Bowman (+41) merely need solid, problem-free runs to advance.

At the World’s Fastest Half-Mile, however, there are no guarantees.

Meanwhile, JR Motorsports driver Sammy Smith and Big Machine Racing driver Parker Kligerman would like nothing better than for the status quo to hold firm in Friday night’s Food City 300 at Bristol.

Kligerman can clinch a playoff spot by scoring 14 points on Friday, while Smith has a commanding 43-point advantage for the final playoff spot.

“I’m looking forward to running under the lights this Friday at Bristol as we contend for our position in the playoffs,” Smith said. “I’ve had good runs there in the past, and JRM has always brought strong cars there, so I’m excited to get there and close out the regular season on a high note.”

The Xfinity regular-season title is also up for grabs, though Justin Allgaier has a 43-point lead over reigning series champion Cole Custer entering the race that will decide who earns the 15-playoff-point bonus.

Allgaier is the defending winner of the Food City 300. He’ll have a competitive teammate in his boss, Dale Earnhardt Jr., who will make his first start of the season on Friday. Earnhardt led 47 laps in the Bristol race last year before exiting with ignition problems after 271 of 300 circuits.

Little was decided in the Aug. 25 first race of the Truck Series Playoffs at the Milwaukee Mile, but the race for the title should take on more definition after the UNOH 200 on Thursday at Bristol.

Non-playoff driver Layne Riggs won at Milwaukee, denying all 10 title contenders the prospect of advancing to the Round of 8 with a victory.

In addition, the two drivers who enter Friday’s race below the current cut line — defending series champion Ben Rhodes and Rajah Caruth — are well within sight of the positive side of the playoff bubble.

With the field set to be cut from 10 to eight drivers on Sept. 27 at Kansas, Rhodes and Caruth trail eighth-place Grant Enfinger by two points and four points, respectively.

“The key to success at Bristol is precision,” Caruth said. “You have to be plugged in and remain aware of everything going on around you. It’s a super-fun race track, but you are going fast, there’s a lot of banking, it is tough to see, and things happen very quickly.

“I’ve raced pretty much everything there, from ARCA to Trucks to Xfinity. Hopefully, we can build off our past runs and punch our ticket to the next round of the playoffs.”

–By Reid Spencer, NASCAR Wire Service. Special to Field Level Media