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For the second year in a row at Homestead-Miami Speedway, Kyle Larson found himself chasing down Ryan Blaney for the victory.

And, for the second year in a row, Larson stepped ever so slightly over the line that differentiates aggression from foolishness, spinning out of second place with 13 laps to go.

It was a miracle that Larson was racing for the win at all in South Florida, as a flat tire on lap 47 relegated him to the back of the pack. After many pit stops and adjustments, however, Larson broke back into the top-five in the closing stages, eventually climbing back into second place.

However, Larson’s over-aggressive attempt to squeeze between Blaney and the lapped car of Austin Dillon may cost the 2021 champion much more than the race win.

Larson’s incredible display of throttle modulation meant he only lost one spot during the spin, but the damage done to the diffuser of his car forced his pit crew to spend precious seconds making repairs, dropping him multiple positions on pit road.

When the checkered flag flew, Larson found himself in 13th with a 24-point day — certainly not the worst outcome possible considering his circumstances early in the race, but a disappointing result nonetheless.

Larson’s late spin now puts the Hendrick Motorsports driver in unfamiliar territory as he chases his second championship. In Larson’s two Championship Four appearances, he clinched his spot in the championship race by winning the first race of the Round of 8.

That was far from the case in Las Vegas on Oct. 20, when Larson dealt with myriad issues on pit road and was forced to scratch and claw his way to an 11th-place finish.

Larson’s results in the first two races of the round mean he’s on the outside looking in for the Championship Four as the circuit heads to Martinsville for the penultimate race of the season. Larson currently sits fifth on the playoff grid, seven points behind teammate William Byron for the final transfer spot.

Larson’s current placement mostly stems from the series of unfortunate events that have plagued the No. 5 team over the last two weeks, but plenty of other opportunities throughout the season can also be partially blamed for the dangerous situation he’s in.

His decision to run the rain-delayed Indianapolis 500 on May 26 rather than start NASCAR’s Coca-Cola 600 ended up being the difference in Tyler Reddick — who won Sunday’s race in Miami — winning the regular-season championship following the Southern 500 at Darlington.

Larson missed out on five extra playoff points that were instead awarded to Reddick. If Larson had those points now, he’d only be two behind Byron for the final spot.

Another flat tire at Kansas in the opening race of the Round of 12 meant Larson never had a chance to contend for the win at one of his best tracks. Another over-aggressive move at Michigan in August resulted in Larson spinning and finishing 34th.

At Iowa, Larson — who was trying to make his way back through the field — was forced into a three-wide situation, which resulted in a crash and subsequent 34th-place finish.

In Chicago, he lost traction on the wet city streets, plowing his way into a tire barrier and a 39th-place finish. A crash in the opening race of the playoffs at Atlanta also negated any opportunity to gain crucial playoff points, which could be the difference between him advancing to the Championship Four or watching his teammate advance instead.

All these incidents have brought Larson to the present, where he needs a stellar performance in order to make the Championship Four for the third time in four seasons.

Larson won at Martinsville in April 2023, but it was his main competitor in Byron who won in the Cup Series’ first visit to the track on April 7.

Sunday’s race will be a battle within the battle for Larson — the chance to make the Championship Four is right there for the taking. But the battle to not push the envelope and make another risky move will be just as important in completing the mission.

–Samuel Stubbs, Field Level Media