On Sunday, the 76th running of the Southern 500 at Darlington Raceway will kick off the 2025 NASCAR Cup Series playoffs.
Sixteen drivers will begin the postseason with dreams of hoisting the Bill France Cup at Phoenix Raceway on Nov. 2, but after a grueling 10-race stretch, only one will emerge victorious.
The Round of 16 is the first of three three-race rounds that sets the stage for the championship race. Following the Bristol Night Race on Sept. 13, four drivers will be eliminated from playoff contention.
As teams prepare for a 500-mile war of attrition in Darlington, S.C., here’s the outlook for every Cup Series playoff driver in the Round of 16.
NEAR LOCKS
–Kyle Larson, No. 5 Chevrolet, Hendrick Motorsports
It’s hard to classify any driver as a lock for the Round of 12 in an inherently chaotic sport, but Larson is as close as it gets. He won the Southern 500 in 2023 and also is the defending winner of the Bristol Night Race. The 2021 champ should cruise through the first round.
–William Byron, No. 24 Chevrolet, Hendrick Motorsports
The two-time Daytona 500 champion comes into the 2025 playoffs looking for a third consecutive Championship 4 berth. He’s tied with Larson at the top of the standings, and while Gateway potentially could trip him up in the first round, he should easily skate through to the Round of 12.
–Denny Hamlin, No. 11 Toyota, Joe Gibbs Racing
Is this finally Hamlin’s year? That’s a question that’s been asked over and over again through the years, but Hamlin’s 19th playoff appearance could be his best one yet. He’s won four races in 2025 to lead the Cup Series, and Darlington is one of his best tracks. The No. 11 should scoot through the Round of 16 quite easily.
–Ryan Blaney, No. 12 Ford, Team Penske
Blaney has gotten tripped up in the Round of 16 before — see 2020 — but the 2023 champion is a much more refined driver now. Like Byron, he’s searching for a third consecutive Championship 4 appearance, and Team Penske likely will be looking to Blaney to carry the flag for the organization throughout the playoffs.
–Christopher Bell, No. 20 Toyota, Joe Gibbs Racing
Bell hasn’t won since March, but his three consecutive victories still carry plenty of weight in August. At the very least, he shouldn’t have to worry all that much at Bristol — but it’s worth noting that of all the drivers in the near lock category, Bell is the least recent winner.
FEELING GOOD
–Chase Elliott, No. 9 Chevrolet, Hendrick Motorsports
The main reason that Elliott didn’t join two of his HMS teammates as a near lock is because, aside from his Atlanta win on June 28, he hasn’t looked like a consistent race-winning threat in 2025. The No. 9 team needs more speed if it wants to make a title run, but Elliott should get through the Round of 16 relatively easily.
–Tyler Reddick, No. 45 Toyota, 23XI Racing
Yes, Reddick will start the playoffs below the cut line, but there’s no reason for the No. 45 team to panic. He has yet to win this season, but that could easily change at Darlington on Sunday. At the least, he should be able to outperform four other drivers near him at the bottom of the standings and move on.
–Chase Briscoe, No. 19 Toyota, Joe Gibbs Racing
Stepping into shoes as big as the ones that Martin Truex Jr. left at JGR was a daunting task for Briscoe, but he’s assimilated to the team’s culture quite nicely. That was headlined by a victory at Pocono and 10 top-five finishes — a mark that ties him for second in the Cup Series this season.
–Alex Bowman, No. 48 Chevrolet, Hendrick Motorsports
Bowman may be the lowest seed in the playoffs, but the car he has underneath him automatically favors his chances of advancing to the Round of 12. He’s been one of the most consistent drivers in the Cup Series this season, and unless a string of horrendous luck decides to unload itself on the No. 48 team, Bowman is more than capable of getting to the second round.
–Bubba Wallace, No. 23 Toyota, 23XI Racing
Call this pick crazy for assuming that Wallace, a driver making just his second playoff appearance, should be feeling good about his chances of advancing to the Round of 12, but the No. 23 team has gotten hot over the last month. After a Brickyard 400 win, Wallace scored top-10s at Iowa and Watkins Glen and would’ve been in the mix for a win at Richmond if not for a pit road penalty. He could be a dark horse pick to make a deep playoff run.
DANGER ZONE
–Joey Logano, No. 22 Ford, Team Penske
The defending champion in the danger zone? Yes, it may be unwise to bet against Logano, but the No. 22 team has shown little speed this season. That’s not an easy dial to turn up on a weekly basis, and one bad race could have Logano staring down a first-round exit.
–Austin Cindric, No. 2 Ford, Team Penske
Cindric has taken a small step forward this season, but it’s hard to imagine a scenario where he’s not scuffling for a spot in the Round of 12. He may very well make the second round of the playoffs, but the Talladega winner won’t get there easily.
–Ross Chastain, No. 1 Chevrolet, Trackhouse Racing
Like Logano, Chastain has the ability to drive a Hall of Fame-caliber race at any moment. Unfortunately for Chastain, his cars are rarely quick off the truck, a problem that will have to be remedied if he wants to make any semblance of a championship run.
–Austin Dillon, No. 3 Chevrolet, Richard Childress Racing
Unless NASCAR decides to put Richmond on the Round of 16 schedule at the last minute, Dillon advancing to the Round of 12 seems very unlikely. He’s been decent at Darlington over the years, but the No. 3 team has been radio silent for much of the year — not exactly the formula for advancing in the playoffs.
–Shane van Gisbergen, No. 88 Chevrolet, Trackhouse Racing
SVG may be 16 points above the cut line, but that’s a relatively thin advantage that can easily be erased in one race. Van Gisbergen has never raced at Gateway and is admittedly “terrible” at Bristol. He’ll have to have a solid effort at Darlington and cut his losses at both Gateway and Bristol to have a shot at advancing.
–Josh Berry, No. 21 Ford, Wood Brothers Racing
There was a point where Berry, who earned his first Cup win at Las Vegas in March, looked to be having a breakout season with the Wood Brothers. Since the first quarter of the season, however, the eam has regressed significantly. Darlington and Bristol are decent tracks for Berry, but he’ll need to find the speed his No. 21 Ford had in February, March and April, or his playoff run will be a short one.
–Samuel Stubbs, Field Level Media
