After second-seeded Italian Jannik Sinner polished off No. 4 Alexander Zverev of Germany 6-2, 6-4, in the first semifinal in the California desert, most observers likely penciled in another Sinner-Carlos Alcaraz final of an ATP 1000 event.
But Danill Medvedev had other ideas.
The resurgent 11th-seeded Russian stunned the Spaniard, 6-3, 7-6 (3) and will face Sinner for the championship on Sunday at the BNP Paribas Open in Indian Wells, Calif.
Alcaraz was 12-0 in 2026 and had won 16 consecutive matches, capturing the Australian Open and the ATP 500 event in Doha, Qatar. But Medvedev broke on his only two opportunities and saved four of five of Alcaraz’s break chances to snap a four-match losing streak to the World No. 1.
Medvedev, who has never won the title at Indian Wells, rallied from 30-0 down to break Alcaraz in the fourth game of the match and only lost three more points on his serve to take the first set.
Alcaraz had two set points in the 10th game of the second set, but the crafty 30-year-old held him off and the set reached a tiebreaker. Medvedev raced to a 6-1 lead and won the match on his next service opportunity.
“Playing someone like Carlos, you play many times, you lose many times,” Medvedev said. “He’s an amazing player with amazing shots, defense, attack, return, everything. So, you need to be at your best.”
After playing Zverev on level terms for the first four games, Sinner ran off the final four games of the first set and was back in his chair in only 32 minutes.
The second set was more competitive and Zverev had one chance to move ahead 4-2. But Sinner erased the one break point chance, broke the German in a five-point seventh game and coasted to and posted his sixth consecutive win over Zrerev.
“Yes … it means a lot to me,” Sinner said about reaching his first final at Indian Wells. “Third time that I play in semifinals, so I’m very happy to be for the first time in the final. Now we see what’s coming tomorrow.”
As many elite players do, Sinner took advantage of Zrerev’s second serve, winning 14 of 22 points. He recorded 16 winners and only six errors in the 83-minute match.
Sinner was questioned about facing Medvedev if the upset did take place.
“Yeah, you know, he’s back to very, very high level,” said Sinner. “Very big serve, I feel like. You know, he’s returning very well. Very, very deep.
“And I think Daniil has found again a good, good balance on court, winning a title in Dubai, coming here, making again great results. But also last time we played has been quite a while now.”
The two have met 15 times since 2020, but not since the Nitto ATP Finals in 2024. Sinner leads the series 8-7, winning eight of the last nine meetings after Medvedev captured the first six. They have faced off in five finals, with Sinner holding a 3-2 edge, including a five-set victory in the 2024 Australian Open.
Medvedev expressed confidence in procuring his third ATP title of the season and first at Indian Wells.
“If I manage to maintain the level I had throughout the tournament and maybe even raise it, I will have my chances,” he said.
–Field Level Media
