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Max Verstappen can clinch his fourth consecutive world championship Saturday night, but the Red Bull star isn’t favored to win the Las Vegas Grand Prix.

Verstappen, who won in Formula 1’s return to Las Vegas last year, qualified fifth. Mercedes’ George Russell will sit on the pole, but it’s Ferrari’s Carlos Sainz — second in qualifying — who has emerged as the +200 favorite at BetMGM.

Sainz’s teammate Charles Leclerc, who qualified fourth, has the second-shortest odds at +225. That’s far better than the +6600 longshot odds of Alpine’s Pierre Gasly, who pulled off the stunning run of qualifying to grab the third position.

Ferrari has shown the best overall speed around the Las Vegas circuit this week in its attempt to close the gap on McLaren in the constructors standings. Lando Norris, who is second to Verstappen in the driver’s standings, qualified sixth with McLaren teammate Oscar Piastri in eighth.

Both Ferrari drivers have seen their odds shorten since Leclerc opened at +350 and Sainz at +600. Leclerc has been the second most popular choice with 15.2 percent of the money and 13.7 percent of all bets backing him to win.

“Ferrari, who already dominated last year, is expected to shine once more at the GP Las Vegas with Leclerc and Sainz,” BetMGM sports trader Kurt Fritsch said. “However, McLaren’s drivers are looking to topple the Italian team leading the pack. Verstappen is a popular bet and a driver we’d like to not win the race.”

Verstappen leads the grid with 29.1 percent of all money and 20.4 percent of the total bets backing the Dutchman to win. That makes him the book’s biggest liability entering the race.

Second is his embattled teammate, Sergio Perez, who has +50000 longshot odds after qualifying just 16th on the 20-car grid.

The book’s third biggest liability this week is seven-time world champion Lewis Hamilton, who has three races remaining with Mercedes before his move to Ferrari. Hamilton with start from the 10th position with +2500 odds. Meanwhile, Russell’s run to the pole has helped drive his odds down from +2500 to start the week.

CORONATION NIGHT?
There are various scenarios that will land Verstappen his fourth title on Saturday night, the most basic of which is him simply finishing ahead of Norris at the race’s conclusion. Verstappen can still finish behind Norris in the race and clinch the championship however, as Norris would need to outscore Verstappen by at least three points to keep his hopes alive.

Prior to the Miami Grand Prix in May, it would have seemed like a fever dream that another driver would be competing with Verstappen for the title this late in the season. Despite McLaren having the best car since Red Bull engineer Adrian Newey departed four days prior to the Miami GP, Norris felt he wasn’t fully prepared for a championship battle of this magnitude.

“I probably wasn’t outright ready to go up against Red Bull and Max,” Norris said. “I think I am now, and it’s probably too late (for that). … Maybe there are other drivers in the past that were ready for such an occasion. But no one has gone up against Max so early in their career, halfway through the season, and put up, I think, a pretty reasonable fight.

“I mean, I’m there, but there’s no one else doing it, you know? So I’ve done my best. I’ve not done well enough. I’ve always admitted that. I think Max is probably one of the best drivers ever in Formula 1. I don’t think you’ll get a much better driver than Max in Formula 1 ever again.”

LEWIS HAMILTON RACING OUT THE STRING
Hamilton had a fiery response to Mercedes’ principal Toto Wolff’s comment that “everyone has a shelf life” in regards to Hamilton’s exit to Ferrari potentially being a positive for Mercedes.

“Honestly I feel like I’m in the best place I’ve been all year mentally and considering how bad the last race was,” Hamilton said. “I think that says enough. Nothing can take me down. I’m still here, I’m still fighting and I’m going to continue to push. I’ve got a team that I generally still love, even though I’m leaving and I want to make sure to give them the best I can in these next races.”

Hamilton drove with the same fire in Thursday’s free practice, finishing first in both sessions. To sweeten the deal for Mercedes, Russell finished second to Hamilton in the first practice session and third behind Hamilton and Norris in the second session. Norris’ second place finish in FP2 capped off a relatively successful day for the Brit as he also finished third behind Russell in FP1.

–Field Level Media