Past meets the present with a potential championship in the future when No. 2 Ohio State plays No. 10 Miami to kick off the College Football Playoff quarterfinals in Arlington, Texas, on New Year’s Eve.
ODDS AND TRENDS
The Buckeyes opened as an 8.5-point favorite and the line reached double-digits at many sportsbooks. By game day, the consensus line was sitting at Ohio State -9.0. That’s including at BetRivers, where there has been a pretty even split with 51% of the spread-line money and 58% of the total bets backing the Buckeyes.
According to the book, only Texas Tech finished the regular season with a better record against the spread than Ohio State. The Buckeyes also covered the spread in three of their final four games against the spread.
Ohio State’s -375 moneyline to win the game outright was predictably far more one-sided, drawing 89% of both the money and total bets.
The 41.0 total points line has seen 57% of the money back the Under, in large part due to Miami holding Texas A&M to just three points in the first round. Three of Ohio State’s past four games against ranked opponents have gone under a total points line of 41, and six of Ohio State’s past eight games overall have gone Under the total points line.
PROP PICKS
–Ohio State WR Jeremiah Smith Over 81.5 Receiving Yards (-115 at BetMGM): This has been the most popular prop for this game at the book. Smith broke out of a mini-slump with eight catches for 144 yards in the Buckeyes’ most recent game against Indiana. Miami has one of the nation’s stoutest defenses, but Smith has topped 81.5 yards six times this season and 81 yards in a seventh.
–Miami QB Carson Beck Over 192.5 Passing Yards (-115 at BetMGM): This is the most popular Hurricanes-based prop. The Hurricanes’ passing game hasn’t exactly been electric this season but Beck was added via the transfer portal for his experience in big-time games. He is coming off a 103-yard outing in a defensive slugfest at Texas A&M, but threw for at least 200 yards in all but two of Miami’s 12 regular-season games.
THE NEWS
The Cotton Bowl matchup conjures good memories for Buckeyes followers and anger from fans of the Hurricanes who feel aggrieved by a 31-24 double overtime loss in the 2002 BCS title game, blaming a late flag for pass interference on Miami for helping Ohio State snatch victory from their grasp.
For all the talk of a rematch by media and fans, standout receivers Jeremiah Smith of Ohio State and Miami’s Malachi Toney and nearly all their teammates weren’t even born when the Buckeyes won the first of their three national titles this century.
The most recent was last season and even though Ohio State (12-1) had a 16-game winning streak snapped in a 13-10 loss to Indiana in the Big Ten Championship Game, Miami coach Mario Cristobal said the Buckeyes are as dangerous as ever.
“They’re the defending national champions. They have elite talent, some really high-caliber players,” Cristobal said. “Just about in every category offensively and defensively, they’re one, two, three, four, five in the country.”
Miami, playing in its first Bowl Championship Series or CFP game since 2002, defeated Texas A&M 10-3 in a first-round game in which the Hurricanes totaled seven sacks and nine tackles for loss, led by All-American defensive end Rueben Bain Jr.
The ACC Defensive Player of the Year has 37 tackles, 7.5 tackles for loss and 4.5 sacks in 2025.
“This is a really talented team,” Ohio State coach Ryan Day said of Miami. “I mean, really talented. They’ve got players all over the field. … Some of the guys on our team know some of the guys on their team and grew up around them, so they’re excited.”
Eight Buckeyes are from the state of Florida, including the sophomore Smith (Miami Gardens), a first-team All-American who has 1,086 yards on 80 catches with 11 touchdowns despite sustaining a late-season strained quad which caused him to miss a game.
Smith said he is healthy and ready to play the Hurricanes, but starting right guard Tegra Tshabola will be unavailable because of an undisclosed injury. Gabe VanSickle or Joshua Padilla could start in that spot. The Buckeyes’ offensive line will be put to the test after Indiana recorded six sacks.
PREDICTION
Expect Miami to be committed to the ground game even if it falls behind early. That’s because the Hurricanes’ passing game has become increasingly reliant upon Toney underneath and behind the line of scrimmage due to shaky pass protection and inconsistent pass protection.
That could keep the game low-scoring and within doubt deep into the second half, but eventually Ohio State’s superior offensive talent will win the field-position battle while Miami’s offense struggles to move the ball with any consistency.
–Ohio State 24, Miami 17
–Field Level Media
