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Dec 27, 2019 4:41 pm

Playoff spots, sitting stars drive shifting lines

The final week of NFL season always presents a potpourri of three types of games:

  • Teams eliminated from playoff contention playing out the string: often with coaches with uncertain futures and players auditioning for job the following season across the league.
  • Teams locked into playoff spots with nothing to gain and looking to rest key players.
  • Team locking horns with playoff spots and/or positioning on the line.

It creates plenty of research and opportunity for bettors seeking to take advantage of the fluctuating factors.



Lines moving as information flows in

PlaySugarhouse.com released betting trends as of Friday afternoon reflective of the shifting odds as bettors ingest the constant influx of information.

Anthony Harris
Brace Hemmelgarn-USA TODAY Sports

Among the interesting trends:

The three heaviest bet teams against the spread were the Indianapolis Colts (91%, -3.5), Minnesota Vikings (-1, 87%) and Kansas City Chiefs (-8.5, 84%).

However, the Vikings had moved from opening as a 7-point favorite against a Chicago Bears team with nothing on the line to a 1-point favorite with quarterback Kirk Cousins among those who will not play with Minnesota locked into the No. 6 seed in the NFC.

The Vikings were still being offered as 3-point favorites by PointsBet.

Texans not doing Steelers any favors

The Baltimore Ravens are also resting a slew of starters with home-field advantage in the AFC wrapped up. That led to the Pittsburgh Steelers being 2-point favorites by both sportsbooks despite heading to Baltimore with an undrafted rookie quarterback trying to keep their playoff hopes alive.

It will be a moot point if the Tennessee Titans beat the Houston Texans to secure the sixth seed. The Texas are locked into the fourth spot and are also expected to rest key players, leading the Titans to be 5-point favorites in Houston by PlaySugarhouse and 5.5-point favorites by PointsBet.



–The Philadelphia Eagles win the NFC East with a victory over the New York Giants. As of Friday afternoon, the Eagles were 4-point favorites at both books, with Philadelphia getting 66 percent of the tickets at PlaySugarhouse. The Dallas Cowboys, who only stay alive with an Eagles loss, were 11-point favorites and getting 55 percent of the tickets against the Washington Redskins.

49ers-Seahawks close regular season in epic bout

The NFL’s regular season will conclude with Sunday night’s highly-anticipated rematch between the San Francisco 49ers and Seattle Seahawks. The winner claims the NFC West title. A 49ers win would secure the No. 1 seed at home-field advantage for San Francisco. A Seahawks win could potential earn Seattle a first-round bye.

Marshawn Lynch, Pete Carroll
Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports

The loser will play at Philadelphia or Dallas next week.

While the tickets were nearly split on the two teams, the 49ers were 3.5-point favorites by PlaySugarhouse (3.0 by PointsBet) against the injury-ravaged Seahawks, who have lost their top three running backs over the past three games along with left tackle Duane Brown.

That led Seattle to bring back Marshawn Lynch this week, and he is expected to see meaningful snaps in his first action in more than a year in a backfield mix with rookie Travis Homer and Robert Turbin.

–Field Level Media (@FieldLevelMedia)

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