There may be four No. 1 seeds in the NCAA Tournament, but in the eyes of oddsmakers, three teams are a cut above the rest of the field.
In the early futures released shortly after the tournament field was announced Sunday night, Duke, Arizona and Michigan were the clear favorites to take home the national championship, with all three slotted in the +300 to +400 range. (+300 means a successful bet would net a bettor $3 of profit for every $1 wagered.)
The fourth No. 1 seed, defending national champion Florida, is slotted in the +650 to +750 range. Those four are only teams below +1000 (10-to-1) in the consensus odds.
The Blue Devils (32-2) were the No. 1-ranked team in the last national rankings released before the tournament field was released. Duke won the Atlantic Coast Conference tournament and earned the No. 1 overall seed in the tournament, being slotted into the East Region.
Arizona (32-2) won the Big 12 tournament and is the top seed in the West. The other top seeds failed to win their conference tournaments — Michigan (31-3) fell in the Big Ten championship game to Purdue on Sunday, a day after the Gators (26-7) lost to Vanderbilt in the Southeastern Conference tournament.
After the 1 seeds is another clear rung for tournament-winning odds, with Houston, Iowa State and Illinois in the +1000 to +2000 range. The Cougars and Cyclones are 2 seeds while the Fighting Illini are a 3 seed and could face Houston in the Sweet 16.
UConn, highly ranked all season but crushed by St. John’s in the Big East tournament final, and Big Ten tourney champ Purdue are the other 2 seeds. The pair fall a notch below in the +2500 to +3500, before another sizeable drop-off in odds.
The first games upon which bettors can wager, Tuesday’s and Wednesday’s First Four games in Dayton, Ohio, feature three games with point spreads within a bucket. UMBC is a 2.5-point favorite over Howard in Tuesday’s first game, a matchup of 16 seeds, with Texas a 1.5-point favorite over North Carolina State in Tuesday’s battle of 11 seeds.
Lehigh is favored by 2.5 over Prairie View A&M in Wednesday’s clash of 16 seeds, with the final game featuring Miami (Ohio) a 7.5-point underdog to fellow No. 11 SMU. The RedHawks went undefeated in the regular season before suffering their first loss of the season to UMass in the first round of the Mid-American Conference tournament on Thursday.
The first full day of action is Thursday, as 32 teams play that day and the other 32 teams play Friday. The tournament concludes in Indianapolis with the Final Four on April 4 and the championship game on April 6.
Odds to win the NCAA Tournament
Team (DraftKings / FanDuel)
Duke (+300 / +380)
Michigan (+360 / +390)
Arizona (+390 / +340)
Florida (+750 / +800)
Houston (+1000 / +1300)
Iowa State (+1500 / +1700)
Illinois (+1900 / +2000)
UConn (+2500 / +3500)
Purdue (+2500 / +2700)
Michigan State (+4000 / +6000)
Virginia (+7500 / +6500)
Gonzaga (+4000 / +7000)
Arkansas (+6000 / +5000)
St. John’s (+6000 / +10000)
Kansas (+6000 / +10000)
–Field Level Media
