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Feb 4, 2020 2:02 pm

D.J. returns to U.S. as Pebble betting favorite

Dustin Johnson doesn’t have a victory in his past 16 worldwide starts dating back to the WGC-Mexico Championship last February.

Dustin Johnson
Dustin Johnson tees off on the seventh hole during the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am at Pebble Beach (Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports)

He has also dipped to No. 5 in the official world rankings after taking much of the fall off to recover from knee surgery. However, Johnson has shown strong indicators that his game is rounding back into shape with a solo second at last week’s Saudi International on the heels of a T7 at the year-opening Tournament of Champions.

Johnson has only two stroke play events and the Presidents Cup under his competitive belt in the past six months, and he’ll have to shake off some jet lag after flying to California on Monday. But Johnson has also enjoyed significant success on the Monterrey Peninsula, site of this week’s AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am.

He is a two-time winner of the event (2009, 2010) and has five top-three finishes in 12 starts. He posted a disappointing T35 at Pebble in last year’s U.S. Open, but admitted that his swing had gotten out of sync over the summer as his game struggled.

Johnson arrives as the betting favorite this week, with DraftKings offering him at +650 and FanDuel even more bullish on D.J. at +550.

Top Contenders
  • No. 8 Patrick Cantlay (+1000 at both books) is the only other top 10 player in the field, and has three top-five finishes in his past five official starts on the PGA Tour.
  • Paul Casey (+1800 DK, +1600 FD) has posted runner-up and T8 finishes in the event over the past two years.
  • Jason Day (+2200/+2000) has five top-six finishes in the event but has yet to win. He’s also in just his second tournament coming off a back injury.
  • Along with five wins at the AT&T, Phil Mickelson (+3000/+2700) has a pair of runner-up and third-place finishes. He’s also coming off a T3 at the Saudi International.
Don’t Overlook
  • Brandt Snedeker
    Brandt Snedeker. (Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports)

    Brandt Snedeker (+2500/+2200) is also a two-time winner (2013, ’15), and four of his nine career PGA Tour victories have come on the West Coast swing (two at the Farmers Insurance Open).

  • It’s a matter of when, not if, Viktor Hovland (+3500/+2900) picks up his first PGA Tour win this year. He has missed three of four cuts, but was in contention before finishing T12 at the U.S. Open here last summer.
  • Graeme McDowell (+4500/+3300) is coming off a win at the Saudi International. He was T18 at the AT&T last year, T16 at the U.S. Open and, oh yeah, won the U.S. Open at Pebble in 2010.
Dark horses
  • Max Homa (+5500/+4800) has three top-10s in his past five starts, including a T6 last week.
  • Scott Stallings (+12500/+8000) is a dark horse with long odds. He also has a T14, solo sevenths and solo third in his past three starts in the event.
  • Kevin Chappell (+25000/+19000) has missed three consecutive cuts and hasn’t finished better than T40 this season as he continues to work his way back from back surgery. He does have the ability to go low, as his 59 at A Military Tribute at The Greenbrier in September showed, and he finished T8 in his last start at Pebble Beach in 2018.



DraftKings is also offering numerous prop bets around the event, including:

  • Winning margin: 1 stroke (+225), 2 strokes (+350), 3 strokes (+550), 4 strokes or more (+275), After a Playoff (+400)
  • To be decided in a Playoff: Yes (+400), No (-670); PointsBet is offering the same prop at +300/-400.
  • Winner to birdie the 72nd hole: Yes (+250), No (-375)
  • Winner to par the 72nd hole: Yes (-150), No (+110)
  • Winner to bogey the 72nd hole: Yes (+500), No (-910)
Phil Mickelson
Phil Mickelson. (Steve Flynn-USA TODAY Sports)

While FanDuel’s odds aren’t as favorable among most of the outright winner bets, the sportsbook is offering some unique prop bets.

One of them is betting on a winner out of a pool not including Johnson, Cantlay, Casey or Snedeker. In that case, FanDuel is offering Day, Mickelson and Matthew Fitzpatrick at +1200, followed by Branden Grace (+1400), Match Kuchar (+1600) and Graeme McDowell (+2000).

With most of the marquee names in the field also boom-or-bust prospects due to factors including injuries, age and the overall state of their games, there are also some interesting make/miss cut odds being offered by FanDuel.

  • Dustin Johnson: Make (-1050), Miss (+600)
  • Phil Mickelson: Make (-380), Miss (+240)
  • Jason Day: Make (-550), Miss (+320)
  • Viktor Hovland: Make (-330), Miss (+220)
  • Jordan Spieth: Make (-310), Miss (+200)
  • Paul Casey: Make (-550), Miss (+340)

–Field Level Media (@FieldLevelMedia)

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